17-06-2015

Nifty after closing above 8000, gave a good rally and opened with good gap up today and got consolidated within previous day high range, which brought in the bullishness to it. Post lunch there was a good follow up to move above 8100, to make a new day high at 8137.

Previous resistance at 8141 and also good sloping UTL gave a decent resistance for this rise and nifty closed just below 8100. Broader market was very good today with 1024 advances to 445 declines.

Nifty has resistance at 8125-41 zone and support at 8064-33, need to see tomorrow's price action at these critical juncture.

FII -- Even today, covered their longs and shorts in futures and good addition in Index call longs today.

Clients -- Good addition in index futures on long side and in option front they are looking for a down day.

PRO -- Good Addition in longs and shorts and in options front they are looking for a green day.

DII -- Huge addition in longs today from DII

Again we have a huge back up for longs from many of our participants yesterday and today. So the major trend is slowly changing gears to longs, but at the same time can't ignore the sharp falls in between, since FII's have not yet started to buy either in cash nor in Futures.

Expecting a Dip again towards 8000 and will look for any buying interest from FII.. till then I would sell the rise and buy the dips.

Happy trading

12-06-2015

Nifty Opened flat to negative and went down first to make a low at 7940 and was inching up slowly but steadily. Today's intra Price action was completely Neutral to Positive and EOD closed near day's high, suggesting a small pause in downtrend unless again on Monday today's low is taken out. Weekly close was below to its Low ema but almost 100 points below to it, so a bounce is expected to make some "catch up".

Broader market was weak with 867 declines to 593 advances for the day. Today FII are net sellers in cash market and DII are net buyers

Vix Range - 8246---7720

Option Open Interest -- 7800--8200 (immediate range)

FII -- Have added longs and shorts today in index futures, with net longs Decreased by 10,546. Longs to shorts is neck to neck now..

Clients -- Have covered their shorts and longs today, with net longs up by 6671 contracts.

Pro -- Added both longs and shorts today, with net shorts up by 7970 contracts.

DII -- Covered their shorts and added longs, with net shorts down by 11,845 contracts.

FII covering another 11K contracts or good addition of shorts now on will change the proposition again to Net shorts. Client have added huge position on call longs from yesterday, this is the factor to be watched for. while FII have loaded their guns with long Puts from the start of the series. May be they are using as hedge, they seem not to be covering at all.

Net to Net, looks like there is a bounce next week, but the sustainability of the same is the Serious question to be asked.

Happy Weekend

11-06-2015

Nifty Opened with huge gap up and above Previous day high and also the strong resistance of 8152. Sad part was it couldn't sustain at the higher price and was sliding all the way below to 8000. Finally closed at 7965.35 with loss of huge 159 points.

Break-out point of 10-06-2015 8115 was taken out in a flash, which alerted the sell off. Now since it has closed below 8000 which is the key reference number for this bull run; bulls need to come back above this number as soon as possible, else bears are going to run the show for some more days or even months.

Yesterday the closing was very positive gave the impression of morning star, but today it has wiped out everything. Since tomorrow is weekly closing, it needs to close above 8102 (developing - if there is new low tom this number will change) which is weekly low EMA,crucial factor. Last week on Friday, Nifty went all the way to then weekly low ema of 8172 but at EOD closed below to it suggesting more falls this week, now again the same thing can repeat or will it close above it? need to watch this tomorrow. 

FII -- Today there is some buying and selling unlike yesterday; both longs and shorts are added up; Net longs up by 2735 Contracts

Clients -- Same like FII, both longs and shorts added up, net longs up by 8836 Contracts

Pro -- Even they have added longs and shorts; Net shorts 33,170 contracts.

DII -- Taken longs and squared some of their shorts; Net Shorts 26,759 Contracts.

FII and Clients both are seeing a two way route tomorrow. since today was a huge day, tomorrow can be a consolidation day moving both sides, unless there is any global pressure to sell off.

Key Level for tomorrow: 8000-8008

Happy trading.

10-06-2015

Nifty opened flat to positive note; thanks to global triggers which saved it from gap down open. It went up breaking previous day high (Yesterday's EOD candle was DOJI) bringing in buyers and short covering rally.

Nifty was moving in an around 8100 forming a "barbed wire" formation. once the consolidation was over, it moved past 8115 which was acting as good resistance for half a day to touch a new day high at 8152.

8152-60 zone is a strong resistance area to be watched out for tomorrow. In my weekly post i had mentioned (2nd value area is not so clear, we mite have a re work there, price can bounce off to 8350-80 NF to make some adjustment for another sell off..) now since we are again back above VAL, there is higher probability for the above to happen.

FII - Have covered their longs and shorts today in Futures;net longs up by 2512 contracts

Clients - Have also covered their longs and short; net longs up by 9674 contracts

Pro - Have covered their longs and gone short; net shorts 17636 contracts

DII - Covered their longs and no change in Short position; net shorts 30722

So today's rally is completely short covering only no actual buying took place. This is like moving into thick air, more turbulence ahead! Unless we see some buying from now on, this rally will keep seeing ups and downs.

Today's close is positive next two days follow up is needed and weekly closing on friday above 8117 will bring pause to the downtrend. TIll then, be cautious and keep trailing with strict stop

Happy Trading

09-06-2015

Nifty opened flat to negative below previous day's VAL. It went up to test the VAL and got rejected firmly. It was trading in a narrow range 8015-8050 and kept its decision to break 8000 or not in "pending" mode. Should be cleared tomorrow.

Broader market is still under pressure with 920 declines to 551 advances. As long as nifty is trading below to its 5 week low moving average, the trend is down but chances for bounces are many, since many of the indicators would be in their respective oversold zones. Need to be very cautious on any bounces.

VIX range for this series : -  8325---7720

Today 8033-39 point of control in NF, need to see the price action tomorrow at this zone.

FII - Covered their shorts today and gone longs in Index futures, but they are still in bear mood in options

Clients - Taken both sides today in Index futures and they are long in Options

DII -- Covered both sides today and cash buying...

PRO -- Covered their longs and taken shorts in index futures and Options front they are bears still.

I am expecting a short term low tomorrow or its already done today. More clarity should emerge looking at tomorrow Price action. So all in all expecting a very good trading day tomorrow.

8000 is becoming a Laxman Rekha...

Happy Trading.

8th to 12th of June 2015

The above 15 min chart is from 1st of June to 05th of June. Why I have posted this chart is Pictures speak more, look at the consolidation happened from 3rd of June through 5th. 8137 was a strong POC.

Now the current week had a open below the POC and gone past VAL too which is signalling more sell off. To top it, we are trading below 5 week low ema, which is again very bearish.

There can be bounces all the way, since we are below to weekly low ema, treat them as opp to sell. Unless we get any close above 8107-110

PS: 2nd value area is not so clear, we mite have a re work there, price can bounce off to 8350-80 NF to make some adjustment for another sell off..

Happy Trading

03-06-2015

Nifty selling continued even today, opened gap down and started to drift below 8200 and kept on going till it found some bottom at 8094 and FII cash figures is the proof for it.

Nifty is comfortably now staying below previous weeks 5 Low ema (8232) and also below its filter. So a bounce towards developing low ema is not ruled out, which is at present 8186 which is also today VAH zone. Tomorrow's price action at or around 8186 should be noted.

VIX shot up 4% today bringing more volatility to our markets, closed at 17.50. The range is getting more interesting, 8000 which is the strong support as per Option table and vix is hinting at 7786---8485..

Broader market was very bad even today with 1292 declines to 224 advances.

FII -- Covering their longs and taking shorts continued today too, but todays addition is less compared to yesterday :) In options they are continuing to buy puts, so any rise will not sustain.

Clients -- They dint cover the longs which they took yesterday, instead they have added some more and they are covering their huge shorts which they have accumulated during friday and monday. So looks like, they are waiting for the bounce to unload this.

DII -- Added some more longs and today they have covered their shorts.. so looking for a bounce?

PRO -- These guys are just adding in both sides from past three days with more bias on downside.

So, now clearly FII's are turning out to be bears for sometime. selling in cash and in futures, clearly indicates a trending moves.. Clients are holding on to longs, either they will unload it at any bounce or are they looking for some trending upmove ahead? will need to watch this. so some kind of technical bounce is expected from tomorrow.

Happy trading

02-06-2015

Nifty Opened flat today and from the word go, it had selling pressure. Being event day today and also 3rd day of the new series, nifty witnessed huge range today (8445--8226). At end of the day, lost 197 points to get close just above 8200.

Broader market was very bad with 1197 declines to 287 advances. As Option Open interest, we can see 8000 is getting the base and 9000 the roof, so a huge range is getting built up.

VIX range is getting interesting -- 8584---7889 (So again, doors getting opened below 8000)

As per option chain, look like 8110-15 could be tested out in coming days.

FII -- Covered their longs today badly and taken up huge shorts today in Index futures, net they are still longs.

Clients -- Covered their shorts today and taken huge longs, net they are still short, on options side also they have taken good long exposure.

DII -- Taken small longs and very small shorts in index futures

Pro -- Taken both long and shorts today in index futures, net they are still short.

FII's have taken the beating today, forced to cover their longs and go short. Clients have done a remarkable job, tomorrow they are hinting for a range bound with green bias, lets c if they rock again.

happy trading.

01-06-2015

Nifty opened with a small gap down, but immediately went to test PDH and was trading above it for most part of the day. last one and half hour saw some selling pressure which took Nifty below PDH and also closed below its VAH and POC, which is not a good sign. Tomorrow being a "news/event" day; Bank nifty could have some wild swings, so trading in NIFTY needs to be a cautious one.

VIX range --- 8799 -- 8068

Today was second trading day of this new series and tomorrow is the third day, which is also an event day, so more clarity should emerge from tomorrow's EOD report. As of now, lets see how FII and others are positioning themselves.

FII -- After a huge buying on friday, today they continued to buy Index future and also entered some shorts, so they are expecting two way movement mostly. Cleverly they have sold options both sides.

Clients -- After huge short on friday, today they have added small longs to Index futures along with very negligible shorts. So they are expecting small rise big fall. Cleverly they too have sold both sides.

DII -- Friday they have added longs, today they have covered some of it and added shorts in Index futures.

Pro -- Addition seen on both sides in index futures but they are clearly seeing a downside movement based on their shorts calls.

Looks like all the parties are clueless still on the direction nifty can take tomorrow. So till the event is over and clear direction is seen, positional traders need to be cautious. Intra-day traders can use this volatility to their advantage with proper money management rules.

Happy Trading.