29-05-2015

Nifty opened flat and within first half an hour +50 points was seen  and nifty went on to break 8400 and tested the earlier support turned resistance zone at 8410-11 and was consolidating in a small band 8418-8400 for entire part of the day. Post lunch, there was dip below 8400, soon buyers came in to take nifty again above 8400 and at Days high at 8444.

Early part of the day, VIX was moving up and post lunch session it cooled off completely. Looks like, RBI rate cut is already getting factored in.

Broader Market was positive with 858 advances to 613 declines. Since today was the first trading day in the new series, we need to wait at-least for 3 trading days to gauge the market sentiments.

VIX Range -- 8816---8052 (so slowly 8000 is gaining strength)

FII -- Huge buying in cash and futures, clearly they are seeing some trend day ahead.
DII -- Huge selling in cash and Longs in futures; so they are sensing some top ahead. Need to be cautious now. Remember, they are longs from 7997, sitting on huge profits.
Clients -- Huge Short position in index futures and Options. clearly going against FII's
PRO -- Good short build up and small long build up too. They are still net longs.

With todays EOD data, its clearly visible that Clients and DII are seeing a short term top ahead, but FII's are clearly seeing very strong green days ahead. As I have already mentioned need to wait for 3 days to understand this data more clearly.

If your longs, keep trailing and ride the trend.. but don't forget to book gain at regular interval.

happy weekend

28-05-2015

Nifty Opened with gap up and got resisted immediately at 8360; we had a strong resistance at 8355-60 zone for last few days. Moment 8308 broke, it went to test the earlier low at 8278. Yesterday after looking at EOD Open interest report, got a clue to sell on rise and today we had the perfect sell set up at open.

Last half an hour there was good short covering rally to bring Nifty back to 8300. 8300 PUT had strong support in this series, so writers made sure nifty closes above 8300. It closed at 8319. Broader market was weak with 633 advances to 819 Declines for the day.

From tomorrow (29th of May) June series will start with 800 point range 8000-8800. Open interest is still young, need at-least 3 days of trading to gauge the sense of writers interest.

INDIA VIX Range for this series -- 8714---7924

Since today is expiry, most of the contracts were covered by all the participants, hence will not look into FII/client OI today..

On general terms:

FII -- are holding net shorts in index Fut
DII -- are holding net shorts in index Fut
Clients -- are holding net longs in index Fut
PRO --are holding net longs in index Fut

happy trading

27-05-2015

Nifty opened with a huge gap due to global factors at 8302.75 and went to touch the low of 8277.95 and recovered swiftly above 8300 and got consolidated in the band of 8308-8333. PDC (previous day Close) was giving the initial resistance and range low was acting as good support for entire day so actual trading band was from 8343-8308.

Yesterday, Option Table Open Interest, gave us a slight hint of Price breaking 8300 (profit booking was seen at 8500 CE levels today and short covering was seen in 8300 PE, may be a dip below 8300 is not ruled out. )

Broader market was weak with 648 advances to 818 declines for the day. Since tomorrow is expiry for May contract, most of the technical's wont work during last one hour :) so keep your stops handy and trade with extreme caution. 

Expiry range as per INDIA VIX -- 8410 -- 8259

FII -- Have added Longs and shorts in Index futures with more bias on downside.
Clients -- Have added longs and shorts in Index futures
DII -- Have added small longs and no change in shorts
Pro -- Have added longs and covered their shorts.

Again similar story unfolding, range-bound day with Negative bias... 

Happy Trading

26-05-2015

Nifty Opened with a small gap up but was soon got sold off. In my weekend post, I had suggested "Need to watch out for any buying interest here(8363-50), else next drop can be to 8300-8280 zone which puts NIFTY in negative trajectory." 

Nifty took the support at 8320 which is also a major support as per Option table Open interest and closed at 8339.35. Broader market was weak with 574 advances to 883 declines for the day. Since we are just 2 day ahead of expiry, trade with extreme caution. 

From Option table still the range is 8500-8300. profit booking was seen at 8500 CE levels today and short covering was seen in 8300 PE, may be a dip below 8300 is not ruled out. 

FII -- have added huge longs and shorts in index futures today and also good addition in Index calls. Expecting a bounce tomorrow.
Clients -- Have added small Longs and shorts in Index Futures and both Long calls and puts. But still they are net short.
DII -- Have added shorts today and covered their longs.
Pro -- Have added both Long and short today.

So clearly today majority have taken both side bets, so expecting a range bound day with positive bias, unless 8320 (today's low) is taken out with volumes. 

Happy Trading

25-05-2015

Today Nifty opened with gap down and was resisted first half of the day at Range high. It was trading in a narrow band of 8413-8441 for almost first half of the day. Post 12.30 we saw break down at range low and made new low at 8364.

On our weekend post, we had suggested that, nifty breaking the trend-line and staying below approx 8420-10 could bring it to the demand zone at 8363-50 and today's low was exact at 8364. We need confirmation of buying tomorrow, else bears will push the price till 8300.

8300-8500 is the range clearly visible from Open interest table now for this expiry. Today's short covering in 8400 Put suggesting some more downside possible.

FII -- Have added small longs today and covered some of their shorts. Net they are long now in index futures.
DII -- Covered their longs and they are still net shorts
Clients -- Have covered their longs and taken shorts and now client's net open interest is negative.
Pro -- Added longs and covered their shorts and net they are longs.

Still Nifty is under bears grip. Longs need to be cautious from now on.

happy trading

Next week -- NIFTY

The Zones, which I have marked are to me are good demand zones. Trend-line which i have drawn holds the key for Monday.

Breaking the trend-line and staying below approx 8420-10 can surely bring NIFTY to 8363-50 zone in fast action. Need to watch out for any buying interest here, else next drop can be to 8300-8280 zone which puts NIFTY in negative trajectory. 

22-05-2015

Nifty opened with a small positive gap and consolidated in the 8440-8420 zone for one hour and gave break out above previous day high and rallied strongly to reach the day high at 8489.55 backed with SBI results. After the SBI result was announced, profit booking took nifty back to the break out point at 8440. Broader market was weak with 625 advances to 840 declines. Time to be cautious with longs.

Today's Price action was very positive till first part of the day, second half was choppy and last hour from 2 PM looks negative. Monday's open and first hour should reveal more.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Have added huge longs and shorts today and their net open interest have again become positive. Still no covering seen in PUTs.
DII -- Holding their shorts and taken small longs today.
Clients -- Covered their longs and taken huge shorts today; still net open interest is positive but inching towards negative zone.
Pro -- Added longs and covered their shorts and net OI is positive.

Clients are slowing turning bearish and FII are turning bullish; the game of expiry will start from Monday. 

Happy weekend! 

20-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap up and went up again to 8400 zone and stayed there for entire day. NIFTY was trading between 8440-8400 entire part of the day, is this some kind of consolidation at higher levels or distribution will be known only after the price confirms it. Nifty has gained 440+ points from the recent lows of 7997 hence fresh buying needs to be taken only with proper stop-loss.  

yesterday (19th) sell off at the last hour was ignored completely in today's price action, when NIFTY firmly broke the 19th High. Now NIFTY has given 3 consecutive close above 200 DMA; which is a good sign for bulls. Broader Market today was Positive with 758 advances and 718 declines for the day.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- They have turned Buyers and their NET open interest has come back again to green. Today they have added 40K Long contract and 3K shorts in Futures and added Calls too. so clearly one more green day tomorrow ??

DII -- They have also added longs to their basket today; but they are still net short. 

Clients -- They started to turn negative; added huge puts and shorted around 19K in Futures.

PRO -- They have covered their longs and shorts today, no fresh addition seen. They are still Net short 

So by going with FII data; they are becoming bullish again at the zone, where many are thinking its the top..so who is clever now? wait and watch!! 

19-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap down and went to test the earlier resistance at 8333. Buyers took NIFTY above 8400 but was not able to sustain there; fell off sharply again to the support region of 8334-40 and closed at 8365.65 with loss of 8 points. 

Last week close gave us a weekly "pause" in the downtrend and today sell on rise got active; signalling strong resistance above @8427-30 zone. so again, we are entering buy on dip and sell on rise, as long as nifty stays above 8200. The range now is 8213---8430 Broader Market was slightly positive with 773 Advances and 703 Declines for the day. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have gone longs 
DII -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have covered their longs and took some shorts.
Client -- Are still net "Longs" in index futures. Today they have covered both longs and shorts.
PRO -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have covered longs and took some shorts.

clearly FII/DII/PRO are holding net shorts and Clients are longs. If this doesn't change, MAY expiry can be Negative.

18-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap up and came out of the trading range immediately breaking 8300. That was the first signs of bullish movement. Later on went on consolidating between 8322-8282 range for good part of the day only to break out at last hour and closed positive at 8373.65 with gain of 111.30 points. 

Last week close gave us a weekly "pause" in the downtrend and today the start of the week is very positive with Weekly trend moving to "Bullish" but remember last week we had also had one more signal with "Sell of Rise" So keep a strict TSL to lock your profits on the way.

Broader Market was positive with 978 Advances and 479 Declines for the day. Today Nifty closed above its 200 Day moving average. Now Bulls will need two more closing above this to continue this momentum, else Bears will use the rallies to sell.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Covered their Longs and Shorts in the index and in Options front, they are still Negative
DII -- Very Small Addition in Longs and Shorts are intact.
Clients -- Very Interesting Move with Addition of Shorts and huge PUTS build up and they have covered their longs in calls too.
PRO -- Addition on long side in Futures and Index Options too have tilted to longs.

Now are the "Clients" on the wrong side or the other 3? Will be cleared with answers mostly by tomorrow with "tuesday factor"

Happy Trading

15-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap up and showed initial signs of buying interest till 8270-80 zone. But it was sold off to test the support again at 8210-20 zone. Almost till end of day; it was trading between 8230-8270 (40 points) Last half an hour saw some volatility by price moving 8240-8270 in a very quick time frame. It closed green at 8262.35 with gain of 38.15 points. 

Weekly Trend has given a pause with a close above its 5 Low EMA and now it has entered the "Trading Mode" with NEUTRAL to BULLISH and "Sell of Rise". As long nifty stays below 8350 and above 8060 best strategy will be to buy low and sell at highs, expecting this range to get resolved by next week.

Broader Market was slightly positive with 804 Advances and 653 Declines for the day. (please note, daily AD ratio is getting tilted to Negative side) 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Still No signs of improvement, the danger of being below this average is a cause of concern for bulls.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Open Interest shows some long addition (may be at the morning dip) and more shorts added. Clearly they are not at all buying. Also note that, after so many months, now they are "net Shorts".

DII -- They have covered very small Longs and their short positions are intact. They have not added any shorts yesterday and today. 

Clients -- They have covered both Longs and shorts today; Net open interest is still Long. 
Pro --  They have Added shorts today and covered some of their longs. 

Yesterday we had 3:1 where, FII were sellers and other 3 were expecting green day. It turned out to be a green day. But was it just to enter shorts at higher range ? :) Today's OI data is not suggesting any good news to bulls. Next week holds the answer. 

Such times till the range resolves, trade light and book profits at critical juncture.

Happy Weekend!
 

14-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap down and started to fall immediately. Just to reach the support zone of 8130-8100. Later part of the day, Nifty was seen consolidating at 8220-8160 for most of the day and closed at range high 8224.20 with loss of 11.25 points. Now the Weekly Trend is still NEUTRAL to BULLISH. As long nifty stays below 8350 and above 8060 best strategy will be to buy low and sell at highs. 

Broader Market was slightly positive with 868 Advances and 598 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Bulls will breath easy only when they take NIFTY above this and stay there for at-least 3+ days. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

Fii -- clearly selling at all the rallies; they are heavily adding shorts in Index futures.
Dii -- Shows Addition in longs today without covering their shorts (May be expecting some technical bounce)
Clients -- Showing some buying interest in both Futures and Options; clearly indicating that they are very bullish and expecting some more upside.
Pro Desk-- Shows Addition in longs today with short covering.

So net on net; today DII/Clients/Pro desk have taken long exposure in Index and FII are strongly against this. It would be interesting to see which side takes the control.

In Cash side, FII are still sellers (very small numbers) and DII are buyers.

Expecting Nifty to Move out of this range 8355---8080 either tomorrow or by Monday. Else, wait for clear direction before attempting any longs or shorts unless its for Intra. 

Happy Trading

13-05-2015

Nifty Opened with a Huge gap on upside and started to show more bullishness in first 15 min of trade. Once it reached its golden ratio retrace levels around 8250-52 zone; higher trade frequency used it to short it from there with a low risk reward set-up. It fell to test the Previous Day low at 8115-8110 zone. Responsible buyers emerged at 8100-120 zone to take nifty again back above 8200. Huge Intra movement was seen today, thanks to VIX. Now the Weekly Trend has turned NEUTRAL to BULLISH with EOD close at 8235.45 with gain of 108.50 points.

Broader Market was slightly positive with 974 Advances and 499 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Bulls will breath easy only when they take NIFTY above this and stay there for atleast 3+ days. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII have taken Longs and good amount of Short in Index futures; signalling they are still seeing this rally a corrective one. In cash they are Net Sellers today

In Options -- Net on Net still they are negative; looks like they are in no mood to cover either their Puts nor their Short calls. 

DII have also added up in short side but they are still long in Cash, so I am seeing this action as their hedging strategy. They must have taken at higher levels today; so system is holding more shorts. 

Clients have used this up and down movement to cover their longs and shorts, but still they are net longs in Index futures. 

In Options -- yesterday's classic move proved rite; they covered their CE longs which they took at yesterdays bottom and also they covered their short calls..Today they have Bought in PE's and hedged it with short PEs.. don't be surprised to see one more fall like the one today :P 

Pro desk -- Aggressive short built up yesterday in Index futures were covered not all, but some. They have taken exposure on long side today. Net OI increasing. 

In Options -- they are net to net longs, may be they are expecting to be a green day tomorrow. 

Inference/Open Interest -- All in All, its again a perfect competition Pro/DII are somewhat seeing a good green day tomorrow; while FII are Bearish though they have long exposure today and Clients are playing good games in options more than Futures.. 

Key Levels to watch for 13-05-2015 -- 8280 Day 5 High EMA and 8293 R1 .. bulls need to scale 8293 for the confirmation of today's Gap and positive close.  Supports  8208 Day 5 close EMA and below that 8192 Pivot for the day.. So again we are seeing a 100 point range 8192---8293..

Trade Cautiously when VIX is higher; keep stops at proper zones; else it will be eaten up..

Happy Trading.

12-05-2015

Nifty Opened with a small gain but got sold off immediately from the word go. Now the Weekly Trend has Turned DOWN with EOD close at 8126.95 with loss of 198.30 points.

Broader Market was also Negative with 290 Advances and 1202 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-90 zone; Nifty is comfortably staying below it, which is not a good sign.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- From 7th of this Month FII are covering their Shorts and Longs in Index Futures; except for yesterday, they showed some interest in buying; and today they liquidated in both sides, majority in Short Side. 

In Option Front-- they are adding in both sides from the start of the series; except for a day on 7th they had liquidated longs in CE. Today's Data is also pointing out the same, buying both calls and puts and they have also covered their shorts in calls, may be a sideways to positive move expected tomorrow. 

DII -- Have Covered their Longs and their Shorts too (Rem, they were sellers in Futures and buyers in Cash) they must have encashed the cool gains in Futures to compensate the virtual loss in cash buying. They don't enter Casino (AKA-- Options)

Clients-- Clients are expecting a bounce tomorrow; they have bought a good number of Index futures and covered their shorts. 

Options---Clients are smart enough to cover their Puts which they have bot yesterday for a good gains (thanks to VIX) they are expecting same kind of magic in Calls tomorrow. They have bot a truck full, but same time very smart, they have sold Calls...limited gains on upside buy limited risk on downside too. 

Pro desk--Dead Opposite to Clients; they are waiting for some more downside tomorrow. Good Number of Index shorts and longs got covered. 

Option side---Even they have bot both calls and puts like FII's. But today they have added good number of Short Calls, So these guys are expecting some more downside. but on net to net basis, in option front they are using it as HEDGE... 

Inference/Open Interest -- FIIs are seen very muted; they are selling in Cash.. but in FUTURES and OPTIONS something is missing and they are net bears...but looking at DII data; they are supporting for a bounce, today their cash purchase is saying a good number. Clients are becoming very smart :) only PRO desk is clearly bearish. They need to follow up.. 

Key Levels to watch for 13-05-2015 --- 5 Days low Ema -- 8143 5 Day low Ema and 5 Day Close -- 8191/8194 .. So clearly we have a very strong resistance at 8145-8194 zone ... 

8098-38 is 5 Monthly Low Ema minus filter is the only meaningful support zone.

Plan your action plan for the next trading day and get into the ring don't merely be a spectator. 

Am Back | 2015 - here and hear I Come

A Very Good Day Friends!

Its been a long long year for me leaving this blog "Hanging"..I was Busy with so many other "Stuffs"; ignored my faithful diary..

Now I am happy to tell; I will start again with initially with NIFTY..slowly as time permits, will check out some good stocks/currency pairs too..

Please Note: I give the levels as per my understanding with market; please take your "own" decision regarding your trading or investment plans. I will not be responsible for any loss you or your organisation suffers or suffered. Please contact your certified Investment adviser before investing or trading.

Happy trading!!