8th to 12th of June 2015

The above 15 min chart is from 1st of June to 05th of June. Why I have posted this chart is Pictures speak more, look at the consolidation happened from 3rd of June through 5th. 8137 was a strong POC.

Now the current week had a open below the POC and gone past VAL too which is signalling more sell off. To top it, we are trading below 5 week low ema, which is again very bearish.

There can be bounces all the way, since we are below to weekly low ema, treat them as opp to sell. Unless we get any close above 8107-110

PS: 2nd value area is not so clear, we mite have a re work there, price can bounce off to 8350-80 NF to make some adjustment for another sell off..

Happy Trading

03-06-2015

Nifty selling continued even today, opened gap down and started to drift below 8200 and kept on going till it found some bottom at 8094 and FII cash figures is the proof for it.

Nifty is comfortably now staying below previous weeks 5 Low ema (8232) and also below its filter. So a bounce towards developing low ema is not ruled out, which is at present 8186 which is also today VAH zone. Tomorrow's price action at or around 8186 should be noted.

VIX shot up 4% today bringing more volatility to our markets, closed at 17.50. The range is getting more interesting, 8000 which is the strong support as per Option table and vix is hinting at 7786---8485..

Broader market was very bad even today with 1292 declines to 224 advances.

FII -- Covering their longs and taking shorts continued today too, but todays addition is less compared to yesterday :) In options they are continuing to buy puts, so any rise will not sustain.

Clients -- They dint cover the longs which they took yesterday, instead they have added some more and they are covering their huge shorts which they have accumulated during friday and monday. So looks like, they are waiting for the bounce to unload this.

DII -- Added some more longs and today they have covered their shorts.. so looking for a bounce?

PRO -- These guys are just adding in both sides from past three days with more bias on downside.

So, now clearly FII's are turning out to be bears for sometime. selling in cash and in futures, clearly indicates a trending moves.. Clients are holding on to longs, either they will unload it at any bounce or are they looking for some trending upmove ahead? will need to watch this. so some kind of technical bounce is expected from tomorrow.

Happy trading

02-06-2015

Nifty Opened flat today and from the word go, it had selling pressure. Being event day today and also 3rd day of the new series, nifty witnessed huge range today (8445--8226). At end of the day, lost 197 points to get close just above 8200.

Broader market was very bad with 1197 declines to 287 advances. As Option Open interest, we can see 8000 is getting the base and 9000 the roof, so a huge range is getting built up.

VIX range is getting interesting -- 8584---7889 (So again, doors getting opened below 8000)

As per option chain, look like 8110-15 could be tested out in coming days.

FII -- Covered their longs today badly and taken up huge shorts today in Index futures, net they are still longs.

Clients -- Covered their shorts today and taken huge longs, net they are still short, on options side also they have taken good long exposure.

DII -- Taken small longs and very small shorts in index futures

Pro -- Taken both long and shorts today in index futures, net they are still short.

FII's have taken the beating today, forced to cover their longs and go short. Clients have done a remarkable job, tomorrow they are hinting for a range bound with green bias, lets c if they rock again.

happy trading.

01-06-2015

Nifty opened with a small gap down, but immediately went to test PDH and was trading above it for most part of the day. last one and half hour saw some selling pressure which took Nifty below PDH and also closed below its VAH and POC, which is not a good sign. Tomorrow being a "news/event" day; Bank nifty could have some wild swings, so trading in NIFTY needs to be a cautious one.

VIX range --- 8799 -- 8068

Today was second trading day of this new series and tomorrow is the third day, which is also an event day, so more clarity should emerge from tomorrow's EOD report. As of now, lets see how FII and others are positioning themselves.

FII -- After a huge buying on friday, today they continued to buy Index future and also entered some shorts, so they are expecting two way movement mostly. Cleverly they have sold options both sides.

Clients -- After huge short on friday, today they have added small longs to Index futures along with very negligible shorts. So they are expecting small rise big fall. Cleverly they too have sold both sides.

DII -- Friday they have added longs, today they have covered some of it and added shorts in Index futures.

Pro -- Addition seen on both sides in index futures but they are clearly seeing a downside movement based on their shorts calls.

Looks like all the parties are clueless still on the direction nifty can take tomorrow. So till the event is over and clear direction is seen, positional traders need to be cautious. Intra-day traders can use this volatility to their advantage with proper money management rules.

Happy Trading. 

29-05-2015

Nifty opened flat and within first half an hour +50 points was seen  and nifty went on to break 8400 and tested the earlier support turned resistance zone at 8410-11 and was consolidating in a small band 8418-8400 for entire part of the day. Post lunch, there was dip below 8400, soon buyers came in to take nifty again above 8400 and at Days high at 8444.

Early part of the day, VIX was moving up and post lunch session it cooled off completely. Looks like, RBI rate cut is already getting factored in.

Broader Market was positive with 858 advances to 613 declines. Since today was the first trading day in the new series, we need to wait at-least for 3 trading days to gauge the market sentiments.

VIX Range -- 8816---8052 (so slowly 8000 is gaining strength)

FII -- Huge buying in cash and futures, clearly they are seeing some trend day ahead.
DII -- Huge selling in cash and Longs in futures; so they are sensing some top ahead. Need to be cautious now. Remember, they are longs from 7997, sitting on huge profits.
Clients -- Huge Short position in index futures and Options. clearly going against FII's
PRO -- Good short build up and small long build up too. They are still net longs.

With todays EOD data, its clearly visible that Clients and DII are seeing a short term top ahead, but FII's are clearly seeing very strong green days ahead. As I have already mentioned need to wait for 3 days to understand this data more clearly.

If your longs, keep trailing and ride the trend.. but don't forget to book gain at regular interval.

happy weekend

28-05-2015

Nifty Opened with gap up and got resisted immediately at 8360; we had a strong resistance at 8355-60 zone for last few days. Moment 8308 broke, it went to test the earlier low at 8278. Yesterday after looking at EOD Open interest report, got a clue to sell on rise and today we had the perfect sell set up at open.

Last half an hour there was good short covering rally to bring Nifty back to 8300. 8300 PUT had strong support in this series, so writers made sure nifty closes above 8300. It closed at 8319. Broader market was weak with 633 advances to 819 Declines for the day.

From tomorrow (29th of May) June series will start with 800 point range 8000-8800. Open interest is still young, need at-least 3 days of trading to gauge the sense of writers interest.

INDIA VIX Range for this series -- 8714---7924

Since today is expiry, most of the contracts were covered by all the participants, hence will not look into FII/client OI today..

On general terms:

FII -- are holding net shorts in index Fut
DII -- are holding net shorts in index Fut
Clients -- are holding net longs in index Fut
PRO --are holding net longs in index Fut

happy trading

27-05-2015

Nifty opened with a huge gap due to global factors at 8302.75 and went to touch the low of 8277.95 and recovered swiftly above 8300 and got consolidated in the band of 8308-8333. PDC (previous day Close) was giving the initial resistance and range low was acting as good support for entire day so actual trading band was from 8343-8308.

Yesterday, Option Table Open Interest, gave us a slight hint of Price breaking 8300 (profit booking was seen at 8500 CE levels today and short covering was seen in 8300 PE, may be a dip below 8300 is not ruled out. )

Broader market was weak with 648 advances to 818 declines for the day. Since tomorrow is expiry for May contract, most of the technical's wont work during last one hour :) so keep your stops handy and trade with extreme caution. 

Expiry range as per INDIA VIX -- 8410 -- 8259

FII -- Have added Longs and shorts in Index futures with more bias on downside.
Clients -- Have added longs and shorts in Index futures
DII -- Have added small longs and no change in shorts
Pro -- Have added longs and covered their shorts.

Again similar story unfolding, range-bound day with Negative bias... 

Happy Trading