19-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap down and went to test the earlier resistance at 8333. Buyers took NIFTY above 8400 but was not able to sustain there; fell off sharply again to the support region of 8334-40 and closed at 8365.65 with loss of 8 points. 

Last week close gave us a weekly "pause" in the downtrend and today sell on rise got active; signalling strong resistance above @8427-30 zone. so again, we are entering buy on dip and sell on rise, as long as nifty stays above 8200. The range now is 8213---8430 Broader Market was slightly positive with 773 Advances and 703 Declines for the day. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have gone longs 
DII -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have covered their longs and took some shorts.
Client -- Are still net "Longs" in index futures. Today they have covered both longs and shorts.
PRO -- Are still net "short" in index futures. Today they have covered longs and took some shorts.

clearly FII/DII/PRO are holding net shorts and Clients are longs. If this doesn't change, MAY expiry can be Negative.

18-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap up and came out of the trading range immediately breaking 8300. That was the first signs of bullish movement. Later on went on consolidating between 8322-8282 range for good part of the day only to break out at last hour and closed positive at 8373.65 with gain of 111.30 points. 

Last week close gave us a weekly "pause" in the downtrend and today the start of the week is very positive with Weekly trend moving to "Bullish" but remember last week we had also had one more signal with "Sell of Rise" So keep a strict TSL to lock your profits on the way.

Broader Market was positive with 978 Advances and 479 Declines for the day. Today Nifty closed above its 200 Day moving average. Now Bulls will need two more closing above this to continue this momentum, else Bears will use the rallies to sell.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Covered their Longs and Shorts in the index and in Options front, they are still Negative
DII -- Very Small Addition in Longs and Shorts are intact.
Clients -- Very Interesting Move with Addition of Shorts and huge PUTS build up and they have covered their longs in calls too.
PRO -- Addition on long side in Futures and Index Options too have tilted to longs.

Now are the "Clients" on the wrong side or the other 3? Will be cleared with answers mostly by tomorrow with "tuesday factor"

Happy Trading

15-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap up and showed initial signs of buying interest till 8270-80 zone. But it was sold off to test the support again at 8210-20 zone. Almost till end of day; it was trading between 8230-8270 (40 points) Last half an hour saw some volatility by price moving 8240-8270 in a very quick time frame. It closed green at 8262.35 with gain of 38.15 points. 

Weekly Trend has given a pause with a close above its 5 Low EMA and now it has entered the "Trading Mode" with NEUTRAL to BULLISH and "Sell of Rise". As long nifty stays below 8350 and above 8060 best strategy will be to buy low and sell at highs, expecting this range to get resolved by next week.

Broader Market was slightly positive with 804 Advances and 653 Declines for the day. (please note, daily AD ratio is getting tilted to Negative side) 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Still No signs of improvement, the danger of being below this average is a cause of concern for bulls.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- Open Interest shows some long addition (may be at the morning dip) and more shorts added. Clearly they are not at all buying. Also note that, after so many months, now they are "net Shorts".

DII -- They have covered very small Longs and their short positions are intact. They have not added any shorts yesterday and today. 

Clients -- They have covered both Longs and shorts today; Net open interest is still Long. 
Pro --  They have Added shorts today and covered some of their longs. 

Yesterday we had 3:1 where, FII were sellers and other 3 were expecting green day. It turned out to be a green day. But was it just to enter shorts at higher range ? :) Today's OI data is not suggesting any good news to bulls. Next week holds the answer. 

Such times till the range resolves, trade light and book profits at critical juncture.

Happy Weekend!
 

14-05-2015

Nifty Opened with Gap down and started to fall immediately. Just to reach the support zone of 8130-8100. Later part of the day, Nifty was seen consolidating at 8220-8160 for most of the day and closed at range high 8224.20 with loss of 11.25 points. Now the Weekly Trend is still NEUTRAL to BULLISH. As long nifty stays below 8350 and above 8060 best strategy will be to buy low and sell at highs. 

Broader Market was slightly positive with 868 Advances and 598 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Bulls will breath easy only when they take NIFTY above this and stay there for at-least 3+ days. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

Fii -- clearly selling at all the rallies; they are heavily adding shorts in Index futures.
Dii -- Shows Addition in longs today without covering their shorts (May be expecting some technical bounce)
Clients -- Showing some buying interest in both Futures and Options; clearly indicating that they are very bullish and expecting some more upside.
Pro Desk-- Shows Addition in longs today with short covering.

So net on net; today DII/Clients/Pro desk have taken long exposure in Index and FII are strongly against this. It would be interesting to see which side takes the control.

In Cash side, FII are still sellers (very small numbers) and DII are buyers.

Expecting Nifty to Move out of this range 8355---8080 either tomorrow or by Monday. Else, wait for clear direction before attempting any longs or shorts unless its for Intra. 

Happy Trading

13-05-2015

Nifty Opened with a Huge gap on upside and started to show more bullishness in first 15 min of trade. Once it reached its golden ratio retrace levels around 8250-52 zone; higher trade frequency used it to short it from there with a low risk reward set-up. It fell to test the Previous Day low at 8115-8110 zone. Responsible buyers emerged at 8100-120 zone to take nifty again back above 8200. Huge Intra movement was seen today, thanks to VIX. Now the Weekly Trend has turned NEUTRAL to BULLISH with EOD close at 8235.45 with gain of 108.50 points.

Broader Market was slightly positive with 974 Advances and 499 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-93 zone; Nifty is trying to come back and touch 200 Day Moving Avg. Bulls will breath easy only when they take NIFTY above this and stay there for atleast 3+ days. 

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII have taken Longs and good amount of Short in Index futures; signalling they are still seeing this rally a corrective one. In cash they are Net Sellers today

In Options -- Net on Net still they are negative; looks like they are in no mood to cover either their Puts nor their Short calls. 

DII have also added up in short side but they are still long in Cash, so I am seeing this action as their hedging strategy. They must have taken at higher levels today; so system is holding more shorts. 

Clients have used this up and down movement to cover their longs and shorts, but still they are net longs in Index futures. 

In Options -- yesterday's classic move proved rite; they covered their CE longs which they took at yesterdays bottom and also they covered their short calls..Today they have Bought in PE's and hedged it with short PEs.. don't be surprised to see one more fall like the one today :P 

Pro desk -- Aggressive short built up yesterday in Index futures were covered not all, but some. They have taken exposure on long side today. Net OI increasing. 

In Options -- they are net to net longs, may be they are expecting to be a green day tomorrow. 

Inference/Open Interest -- All in All, its again a perfect competition Pro/DII are somewhat seeing a good green day tomorrow; while FII are Bearish though they have long exposure today and Clients are playing good games in options more than Futures.. 

Key Levels to watch for 13-05-2015 -- 8280 Day 5 High EMA and 8293 R1 .. bulls need to scale 8293 for the confirmation of today's Gap and positive close.  Supports  8208 Day 5 close EMA and below that 8192 Pivot for the day.. So again we are seeing a 100 point range 8192---8293..

Trade Cautiously when VIX is higher; keep stops at proper zones; else it will be eaten up..

Happy Trading.

12-05-2015

Nifty Opened with a small gain but got sold off immediately from the word go. Now the Weekly Trend has Turned DOWN with EOD close at 8126.95 with loss of 198.30 points.

Broader Market was also Negative with 290 Advances and 1202 Declines for the day. 200 Day Moving average is at 8289-90 zone; Nifty is comfortably staying below it, which is not a good sign.

Now Lets Look at how Open interest is aligned:

FII -- From 7th of this Month FII are covering their Shorts and Longs in Index Futures; except for yesterday, they showed some interest in buying; and today they liquidated in both sides, majority in Short Side. 

In Option Front-- they are adding in both sides from the start of the series; except for a day on 7th they had liquidated longs in CE. Today's Data is also pointing out the same, buying both calls and puts and they have also covered their shorts in calls, may be a sideways to positive move expected tomorrow. 

DII -- Have Covered their Longs and their Shorts too (Rem, they were sellers in Futures and buyers in Cash) they must have encashed the cool gains in Futures to compensate the virtual loss in cash buying. They don't enter Casino (AKA-- Options)

Clients-- Clients are expecting a bounce tomorrow; they have bought a good number of Index futures and covered their shorts. 

Options---Clients are smart enough to cover their Puts which they have bot yesterday for a good gains (thanks to VIX) they are expecting same kind of magic in Calls tomorrow. They have bot a truck full, but same time very smart, they have sold Calls...limited gains on upside buy limited risk on downside too. 

Pro desk--Dead Opposite to Clients; they are waiting for some more downside tomorrow. Good Number of Index shorts and longs got covered. 

Option side---Even they have bot both calls and puts like FII's. But today they have added good number of Short Calls, So these guys are expecting some more downside. but on net to net basis, in option front they are using it as HEDGE... 

Inference/Open Interest -- FIIs are seen very muted; they are selling in Cash.. but in FUTURES and OPTIONS something is missing and they are net bears...but looking at DII data; they are supporting for a bounce, today their cash purchase is saying a good number. Clients are becoming very smart :) only PRO desk is clearly bearish. They need to follow up.. 

Key Levels to watch for 13-05-2015 --- 5 Days low Ema -- 8143 5 Day low Ema and 5 Day Close -- 8191/8194 .. So clearly we have a very strong resistance at 8145-8194 zone ... 

8098-38 is 5 Monthly Low Ema minus filter is the only meaningful support zone.

Plan your action plan for the next trading day and get into the ring don't merely be a spectator. 

Am Back | 2015 - here and hear I Come

A Very Good Day Friends!

Its been a long long year for me leaving this blog "Hanging"..I was Busy with so many other "Stuffs"; ignored my faithful diary..

Now I am happy to tell; I will start again with initially with NIFTY..slowly as time permits, will check out some good stocks/currency pairs too..

Please Note: I give the levels as per my understanding with market; please take your "own" decision regarding your trading or investment plans. I will not be responsible for any loss you or your organisation suffers or suffered. Please contact your certified Investment adviser before investing or trading.

Happy trading!!